The latest general election drama wizard story (The Times, 4th May 2015) is that Labour suits may undermine formation of a Labour minority government with anti-Tory support, if Miliband is as much as 12 seats behind Cameron. 

Oblivious to, or perhaps because of, potentially 40 – 50 SNP seats in WM.

So Miliband could be stabbed in the back, and sacked, by his own MPs while the country is clamouring for a government free of the Tories. This beggars belief (but perhaps not if you can recall the machinations of Labour MPs in 1979′ before and after the Referendum of that year)!

If any of this is to be spun by Scottish Labour to pressure folk to give them another chance, I think this is doomed. It is a poor tactic to win back Scotland, at this election or any other, because this belies the Labour narrative that SNP support this year is just a protest vote, some kind of weird post-indyRef reaction.  But here is the news. Labour voters in their once-heartland are not voting SNP to keep Labour (the Red Tories) in check, but rather because they can’t stomach voting Labour any longer.

Murphy is unappealing and not particularly trusted (careful wording here). Miliband has had a better campaign than expected, but Nicola Sturgeon has excelled, talking the language once-Labour voters want to hear.

And, most importantly, she is talking their language because that is what she believes, and you just can’t fake that, Jim.

Finally, the graphic below, (from New Statesman, online) with all the seat predictions is telling. Labour are behind the Tories in all but one prediction. Ranging from only 4 seats, to over 30 seats. But in each prediction, the SNP seats are consistently within 2 or 3 seats of the mean. So the difference for Labour is not Scottish seats, but how Labour performs in England. If Labour want to govern the UK, they need to do better in England.

The pain felt by the remainder of Scottish Labour is because Labour are now reaping the rewards of taking Scottish votes for granted. For too long,  Labour has lazily used the block Scottish vote as a makeweight against their deficit in England. Perhaps if Kinnock, Blair and Brown had steered closer to those ‘Traditional Labour Values’ in England, they may now be feeling some of the admiration Nicola Sturgeon is attracting both sides of the border.

  Courtesy of the New Statesman online, 4th May 2015


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