Reflecting 2015 GE – Polling night comments

Bellow are a stream of comments on a historic night of SNP gains. Quite an event, yet so much has changed since with Brexit Vote, Cameron ( who?) Out, May in!, next General Election and hurtling towards some uncertain political status.

Sorry, I can’t help. Goodness knows what is going on ! These notes are cathartic though. Enjoy.

@Caithnesian: #bbcelections2015 If predict. correct, Labour have lost because they have lost share to Tories in England.

@Caithnesian: #bbcelections2015 If all predict. SNP seats were Labour, #milifandom still a country mile behind Tories. #LabourFail. End of. @ScotNational

@Caithnesian: @ScotNational #bbcelections2015 Labour in England have suffered from concerted right-wing press hysteria of Lab-SNP pact. Not nice is it?

@Caithnesian: @ScotNational #bbcelections2015 Early results see LibDems hemoraging votes to right (Tory/UKIP), not left (Lab/Green). V.bad news for Clegg

@Caithnesian: @ScotNational #bbcelections2015 If Clegg considers coalition again, he must recall its the ‘left’ LDs who have stayed with his party in Eng.

@Caithnesian: @ScotNational #bbcelections2015 Poor Clegg, the ‘right’ LDs seem to have drifted to right (Tory/UKIP) already in England.

@GrahamStewartTV: SNP confident and think they may have just edged Douglas Alexander out of Paisley South. Within 700 votes or so. #GE2015

@Caithnesian: @BBCPolitics @daily_politics interesting to know if avg vote in Scotland is up? @NicolaSturgeon effect, or we just being contrary?

@karenmcveigh1: Alex Salmond, wife Moira arrive at Gordon seat, to cheers

@karenmcveigh1: Turnout for Gordon, Aberdeenshire where incumbent LibDem has conceded defeat against Alex Salmond, is 73.3 percent

@Caithnesian: @scotlibdems conceded Gordon to @theSNP ? Looked like @Cajardine had conceded a week ago. Winning here? No. Seriously misplayed election.

@Caithnesian: Kilmarnock and Louden!!; 14,000 majority @theSNP ; @Caithnesian: @theSNP 26% swing !

@Caithnesian: Western Isles HOLD for @theSNP

@Caithnesian: BBC, @theSNP  and even Labour tipping YES-city Glasgow to be 100% SNP in Westminster – 7 Seats!   #tremendous #remarkable #stunning #wow

@Caithnesian: @daily_politics @timfarron @afneil   FEAR won in England; HOPE won in Scotland ; Labour Party on the wrong side of each argument

@Caithnesian: Paisley & Refrewshire South – FOR GOODNESS SAKE ; SNP. – @Caithnesian 27% swing for @mhairi1921

@Caithnesian: okay, I’m now losing track of all the Seats @theSNP are winning

@Caithnesian: @theSNP gain Falkirk

@Caithnesian: Glenrothes . . . @theSNP gain!!!  @Caithnesian: @theSNP that is over 60% of the vote ; 38% swing – practically breaking the BBC digital swingometer

@Caithnesian: East Kilbride ; Always a foregone conclusion for Labour ; SNP JUST GOT OVER 33678 votes! Gain!

@Caithnesian: Motherwell and wishaw  ; Frank Roy 15,000 ; @theSNP Fellows wins!

@Caithnesian: Angus ; SNP HOLD FOR MIKE WEIR @theSNP  ; 24130 votes

@Caithnesian: Dundee West already gained. ; @theSNP Stuart Hosie holds Dundee East ; 12 seats – it’s a record!

@Caithnesian: 12 seats declared, 12 seats won by @theSNP ; Vote share over those 12 seats is over 55%

@Caithnesian: East Dumbartonshire – first Lib Dem Scottish seat to declare . . . @theSNP GAIN. Jo Swinston out

@Caithnesian: Rutherford and Hamilton West : over 30,000 votes for Mgt Ferrier, @theSNP , beating Tom Greaterex. ; SNP gain

@Caithnesian: Roger Mullin wins Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath for the SNP – just vacated by Gordon Brown ; 52% of vote, swing from Labour of 35%. .  .Jeez

@Caithnesian: @theSNP win Midlothian

@Caithnesian: @theSNP just win at Inverclyde announcement. Ronnie Cowan – MP

@JenDempsie: Some strong women elected so far for @theSNP with @TasminaSheikh @MgtFerrierSNP @marion53f @mhairi1921 @lisacameronsnp #GE15 @Women5050

@Caithnesian: @theSNP GAIN Airdrie and Shotts ; Territory of John Smith, John Reid etc . . . . not any longer

@Caithnesian: Renfrewshire East. Jim Murphys seat. ; Lab – 19,295 @theSNP – 23,039 ; SNP gain. Murphy out.

@paulmasonnews: Reinventing Scotlab as an ultra unionist party, suppressing its left and pro-autonomy voices, turns out to have been a bad idea. #murphygone

@BBCScotlandNews: #SNP HOLD Moray http://t.co/vXs38IGPry #GE2015

@Caithnesian: @theSNP gainStirling, and Lanark & Hamilton East,

@Caithnesian: Glasgow East – @nataliemcgarry GAIN from Margaret Curran.  😀

@Scotsfox: Natalie McGarry MP Goodbye Magrit… One of the sweetest wins tonight. #SNP

@Caithnesian: Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – @theSNP GAIN

@Caithnesian: Bathgate – @theSNP GAIN ; Michael Connarty defeated

@MMcCarten: I’m scared to stand up incase SNP take my seat.

@Caithnesian: @theSNP HOLD Perth. Now over30 seats

@Caithnesian: Ian Davidson’s seat ; @theSNP gain! Oh thank you 😆 @Caithnesian: that was Glasgow South West, Ian Davidson OUT is even better than Murphy, Curran and Alexander

@Caithnesian: Congratulations @PhilBoswellSNP – new MP for coatbridge

@Caithnesian: Currently 33 SNP seats – three times our all time record!

@bazzared1903: We’re never going to see this again in our lifetime. Savour it. Give yourself a massive pat on the back. Then keep the fight going #SNP

@Caithnesian: @ScotNational remember that last Labour MP In Scotland? Willie Bain has gone – 39% swing!! ; Glasgow North East

@Caithnesian: North East Fife . . . ; Lib Fem grandee Ming Campbell retired ; @theSNP GAIN- 18,523 ; Well done Steven Gethins

@Caithnesian: Ian Davidson knifes Murphy – in the back, front and sides; @scottishlabour

@BBCScotlandNews: #SNP GAIN Glasgow South http://t.co/vXs38IGPry #GE2015

@BBCScotlandNews: #SNP GAIN Glasgow North West http://t.co/vXs38IGPry #GE2015

@NOSN_WClark: Turnout for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is 72%

@BBCScotlandNews: #SNP GAIN East Lothian http://t.co/vXs38IGPry #GE2015

What have the Tories ever done for us?

People, gather round, because tomorrow we vote for the next government from Westminster.

To my shame, these blogs have ignored one element of society that is blessed with the many columns of the 5th estate and claims to have given us much in the last 5 years, even though we elected only one of their number in 2010. How generous they are.

So, What have the Tories done for us?

They introduced the Welfare Reform Act, with the Bedroom Tax, and Universal Credit, they have a private company incentivised to take away disabled allowances and generally slashed spending with no support and have left the most vulnerable in our society high and dry.

Ok, so apart from the Bedroom tax, Universal credit and stuffing disabled people, what have the Tories ever done for us?

They have made education more expensive – students in England and Wales leave uni more than £44k in debt, which is crazy. In Scotland, the costs to protect students from Tuition fees rise, but that has been delivered and held by the SNP. Labour and Lib Dems welshed on this when they ran Holyrood, but then the Lib Dems did a stunning backflip to get into WM government and ditched promises to stop tuition fees. Nick Clegg is sorry. 

Right . . . So apart from Welfare Reform and Tuition Fees, what have the Tories ever done for us?

They’ve trashed the NHS good and proper. In their last election campaign, Tories promised “no more top-down reorganisations” of the NHS, which was reiterated in the coalition agreement with the Libe Dems (yes, them again). What has followed is the largest, most damaging top down reorganisation of the NHS in England ever seen. And all the savings from the NHS mean less money is allocated to the NHS for Scotland, which the SNP have tried to keep on track with absolutely limited privatisation.

In the referendum campaign, Labour told us in Scotland the NHS was fine in the UK. But we know the standards of care creeping in south of the border are falling behind what we want to see in Scotland. Kailash Chand of the BMA said “Government Policy and privatisation mean the NHS as we know it could be gone in as little as five years”.

Interesting how many Tory, and even Labour MPs have directorships in private health providers!

Indeed! Well OK, but apart from a crumbling NHS, Education to all who can afford it and the ‘you’ll no be well fare act’, what have the Tories ever done for us?

Well, the Tories are to the Environmnet what Ghengis Khan was to peaceful negotiation! When Cameron said his government would be the greenest ever, he was talking about envy or something, but not the environment. The Coalition (yes, you too Nick Clegg) have enthusiastically encouraged Frackers, even to the extend of changing Tresspass law to allow fracking beneath homes south of the border without homeowners permission. Talk about an enabling act!

Jeez, so the Tories have fracked off the environment, but surely the economy is sound though?

Well, the bankers are happy. But priority número uno was to eliminate the UK deficit by 2016-17. They are miles off! They say there are some more Jobs, but how many of those are zero hours contracts? In the EU, the UK has the second largest deficit (commiserations to Croatia). Deficit. That’s not good. 2014-15 deficit at £87bn. Over twice what Osborne predicted it would be this year.

On a positive note, the Tories and Liberals cut tax on the highest earners. 

Hmmm. Right so apart from failing on economic targets, letting the environment go to Frack, privatising the NHS, penalising the poor for, well, for being poor and breaking promises on education, are there any redeeming features of the Tories?

Absolutely. Just one. They’ll be horsed out of government if anyone has been paying attention. Genuine progressive parties on the rise, we could even see a higher quality of politics seeping into Westminster, where principle and policy trumps profit and spin.

And as for the Lib Dems, who misjudged their own members and supporters and chose to help the Tories, I hope their judgement will be swift and conclusive. Don’t darken our door again!

Labour pains

The latest general election drama wizard story (The Times, 4th May 2015) is that Labour suits may undermine formation of a Labour minority government with anti-Tory support, if Miliband is as much as 12 seats behind Cameron. 

Oblivious to, or perhaps because of, potentially 40 – 50 SNP seats in WM.

So Miliband could be stabbed in the back, and sacked, by his own MPs while the country is clamouring for a government free of the Tories. This beggars belief (but perhaps not if you can recall the machinations of Labour MPs in 1979′ before and after the Referendum of that year)!

If any of this is to be spun by Scottish Labour to pressure folk to give them another chance, I think this is doomed. It is a poor tactic to win back Scotland, at this election or any other, because this belies the Labour narrative that SNP support this year is just a protest vote, some kind of weird post-indyRef reaction.  But here is the news. Labour voters in their once-heartland are not voting SNP to keep Labour (the Red Tories) in check, but rather because they can’t stomach voting Labour any longer.

Murphy is unappealing and not particularly trusted (careful wording here). Miliband has had a better campaign than expected, but Nicola Sturgeon has excelled, talking the language once-Labour voters want to hear.

And, most importantly, she is talking their language because that is what she believes, and you just can’t fake that, Jim.

Finally, the graphic below, (from New Statesman, online) with all the seat predictions is telling. Labour are behind the Tories in all but one prediction. Ranging from only 4 seats, to over 30 seats. But in each prediction, the SNP seats are consistently within 2 or 3 seats of the mean. So the difference for Labour is not Scottish seats, but how Labour performs in England. If Labour want to govern the UK, they need to do better in England.

The pain felt by the remainder of Scottish Labour is because Labour are now reaping the rewards of taking Scottish votes for granted. For too long,  Labour has lazily used the block Scottish vote as a makeweight against their deficit in England. Perhaps if Kinnock, Blair and Brown had steered closer to those ‘Traditional Labour Values’ in England, they may now be feeling some of the admiration Nicola Sturgeon is attracting both sides of the border.

  Courtesy of the New Statesman online, 4th May 2015